is predicting a 4.1% gain in holiday sales. that would not be as good as last year, but still above the ten-year average. but as erika miller explains, there's greater uncertainty than usual in the forecasts. >> reporter: past the halloween decorations, the candy, and costumes, you will find the artificial trees, wreaths, and tinsel. stores like this kmart are displaying christmas merchandise early, hoping for a greater share of holiday spending. >> they are coming in and looking at the trees and getting the thought in their mind that christmas is coming, and start to think, "what can i start shopping for now?" >> reporter: but forecasters say it's more difficult than usual to predict consumer spending this holiday season. the big wild card is the presidential election. >> this is the most difficult year we've ever had to predict our forecast, because there's never been this level of uncertainty in terms of tax and spending policy really in our history. >> reporter: his organization, the national retail federation, is forecasting a 4.1% gain.